use 0308, clear

**Download packages*************
ssc install cem, replace
ssc install estout, replace
********************************

*****Variable Descriptions (do file:manuscript)*****
*carrot_1: Carrots at threat 
*carrotonlyimposition: Carrots at imposition
*issue_dum: Issue salience
*highact: Hostility level
*institution: International institution 
*cont_dum: Contiguity
*multi: Multiple senders
*atopally: Alliance 
*idealpointdistance: Ideal point distance
*ddyad: Democracy dyad
*demo_t: Target's democracy
*demo_s: Sender's democracy
*lngdp_t: Target's GDP
*lnpop_t: Target's population
*coldwar: Cold War 
*us_dum: United States
*y1: Threat duration
*g1: Imposition duration
*issue_rnr: Issue salience (New)
*ed: Target's Economic dependence

*****Main text***** 

*Table 1 
**Threat stage 
imb issue_dum highact institution ddyad , treatment (carrot_1)
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
**Imposition stage (correction democracy dyad before matching: 0.226->0.286 & hostility level after matching 0.011->0.108)
imb issue_dum highact institution ddyad , treatment (carrotonlyimposition)
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak

*Table 2 
est clear
eststo:probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum, robust //5% okay
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
eststo: probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
eststo: probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum, robust //5%
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak
eststo: probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5%
esttab, starlevel(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) p compress nogap

*Table 3 (reference: rnr_tables.do) 
**Threat stage (margin before matching at the threat stage: 0.198->0.199)
probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum, robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1)  force

cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1)  force

**Imposition stage
probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum, robust //5%
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition)  force

cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak
probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5%
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition)  force

*Table 4 
gen impositionoutcome2=impositionoutcome
replace impositionoutcome2=. if threat==0 & imposition==1 
est clear
eststo: probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum, robust //5% okay
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
eststo: probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
eststo: probit impositionoutcome2 carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum, robust //5%
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak
eststo: probit impositionoutcome2 carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5%
esttab, starlevel(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) p compress nogap

*Table 5
probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum, robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1)  force
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1)  force
probit impositionoutcome2 carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum, robust //5%
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition)  force
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak
probit impositionoutcome2 carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5%
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition)  force

*****Appendix B*****
*Table A1
est clear
eststo: probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum y1, robust //5% okay
eststo: probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum g1, robust //5%
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrot_1) showbreaks 
eststo:probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum y1[iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak 
eststo: probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum g1[iweight=cem_weights], robust //5%
esttab, starlevel(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) p compress nogap

*Table A2 
**Threat stage (before CEM: 0.183->0.184)
probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum y1, robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1)  force
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrot_1) showbreaks 
probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum y1[iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1)  force
**Imposition stage 
probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum g1, robust //5%
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition)  force
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak 
probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum g1[iweight=cem_weights], robust //5%
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition)  force

*Table A3
**Threat stage
imb issue_dum highact institution ddyad y1, treatment (carrot_1)
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) y1(#5), treatment (carrot_1) showbreaks 
**Imposition stage
imb issue_dum highact institution ddyad g1, treatment (carrotonlyimposition)
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) g1(#10), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak 

*Table A4
est clear
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) y1(#5), treatment (carrot_1) showbreaks 
eststo: probit threatoutcome i.carrot_1##c.y1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) g1(#10), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak 
eststo: probit impositionoutcome i.carrotonlyimposition##c.g1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5%
esttab, starlevel(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) p compress nogap


*Table A5
**Threat
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) y1(#5), treatment (carrot_1) showbreaks 
probit threatoutcome i.carrot_1##c.y1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1)  force
**Imposition
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) g1(#10), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak 
probit impositionoutcome i.carrotonlyimposition##c.g1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5%
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition)  force


*Table A6
est clear
eststo: firthlogit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum //5% okay
eststo: firthlogit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum y1 //5% okay
eststo: firthlogit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum //5%
eststo: firthlogit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum g1 //5%
esttab, starlevel(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) p compress nogap

*Table A7
**Threat stage
firthlogit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1) expression(invlogit(predict(xb)))
firthlogit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum y1 //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1) expression(invlogit(predict(xb)))
**Imposition stage
firthlogit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum //5%
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition) expression(invlogit(predict(xb)))
firthlogit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum g1 //5%
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition) expression(invlogit(predict(xb)))

*Table A9
**Threat stage
imb issue_dum highact institution ddyad us_dum, treatment (carrot_1)
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) us_dum(#0), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak 
**Imposition stage (before matching, hostility level: 3.183->0.225, democracy dyad: -0.286->0.286)
imb issue_dum highact institution ddyad us_dum, treatment (carrotonlyimposition)
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) us_dum(#0), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak

*Table A10
est clear
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) us_dum(#0), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak 
eststo: probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
eststo: probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
eststo: probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum y1[iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) us_dum(#0), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak
eststo: probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5%
eststo: probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5%
eststo: probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum g1[iweight=cem_weights], robust //5%
esttab, starlevel(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) p compress nogap


*Table A11
**Threat stage
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) us_dum(#0), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak 
probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1) force
probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1) force
probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum y1[iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1) force

**Imposition stage
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) us_dum(#0), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak
probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5%
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition)  force
probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5%
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition)  force
probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum g1[iweight=cem_weights], robust //5%
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition)  force

*Table A12
**Target's GDP
***Threat stage
imb issue_dum highact institution ddyad lngdp_t, treatment (carrot_1)
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) lngdp_t(#3), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
**Imposition stage
imb issue_dum highact institution ddyad lngdp_t, treatment (carrotonlyimposition)
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) lngdp_t(#3), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak
**Target's trade dependence
gen ed=ln(laggedflow1)-ln(laggdp_t)
imb issue_dum highact institution ddyad ed, treatment (carrot_1)
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) ed(#5), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
***imposition stage: Global L1 distance: 0.739->0.809, Issue salience: 0.118->0.300, Hostility level: 0.355->0.224, International institution: 0.113->0.217, Democracy dyad: 0.198->0.256, Target's economic dependence: 0.449->0.227)
imb issue_dum highact institution ddyad ed, treatment (carrotonlyimposition)
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) ed(#5), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak
**Target's GDP+Target's trade dependence
***Theat stage
imb issue_dum highact institution ddyad lngdp_t ed, treatment (carrot_1)
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) lngdp_t(#3) ed(#5), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
***Imposition stage
imb issue_dum highact institution ddyad lngdp_t ed, treatment (carrotonlyimposition)
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) lngdp_t(#3) ed(#5), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak

*Table A13 
est clear
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) lngdp_t(#3), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
eststo: probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) lngdp_t(#3), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak
eststo: probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) ed(#5), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
eststo: probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) ed(#5), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak
eststo: probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) lngdp_t(#3) ed(#5), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
eststo: probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) lngdp_t(#3) ed(#5), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak
eststo: probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
esttab, starlevel(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) p compress nogap

*Table A14
**Target's GDP
***Threat stage
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) lngdp_t(#3), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1)  force
***Imposition stage
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) lngdp_t(#3), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak
probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition)  force
**Export Dependence
***Threat stage
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) ed(#5), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1)  force
***Imposition stage (-1.000->0.959)
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) ed(#5), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak
probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition)  force
**Export dependence+Target's GDP
***Threat stage
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) lngdp_t(#3) ed(#5), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1)  force
***Imposition stage
cem issue_dum(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0) lngdp_t(#3) ed(#5), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak
probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_dum highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition)  force

*Table A15
**Threat stage
imb issue_rnr highact institution ddyad , treatment (carrot_1)
cem issue_rnr(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
***Imposition stage
imb issue_rnr highact institution ddyad , treatment (carrotonlyimposition)
cem issue_rnr(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak

*Table A16
est clear
eststo: probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_rnr highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum, robust //5% okay
cem issue_rnr(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
eststo: probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_rnr highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
eststo: probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_rnr highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum, robust //5%
cem issue_rnr(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak
eststo: probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_rnr highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5%
esttab, starlevel(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) p compress nogap

*Table A17
**Threat stage
probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_rnr highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum, robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1)  force
cem issue_rnr(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrot_1) showbreak
probit threatoutcome carrot_1 issue_rnr highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5% okay
margins, dydx(carrot_1)  force
***Imposition stage
probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_rnr highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum, robust //5%
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition)  force
cem issue_rnr(#0) highact(1.5 12.5 17.5 22.5) institution(#0) ddyad(#0), treatment (carrotonlyimposition) showbreak
probit impositionoutcome carrotonlyimposition issue_rnr highact institution cont_dum multi atopally idealpointdistance ddyad demo_t demo_s  lngdp_t lnpop_t coldwar us_dum [iweight=cem_weights], robust //5%
margins, dydx(carrotonlyimposition)  force

